The MoodCompass Project
Global risk and hazard forecasting in the areas of socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental instability using oscillations in social mood and perception-- The MoodCompass.
From the September 2008 stock
market crash, to the Arab Spring uprisings to the Fukishima Earthquake, the
MoodCompass Project demonstrates that the where and when of major changes,
even a month or more in the future, can be detected, analyzed, and prepared
See MoodCompass on the TV
Great article overviewing our
Group using cutting-edge research to forecast social mood, perceptions
Read the Socionomist Article:
A Professor incorporates Social Mood into Model for Forecasting Big Events
Our research has demonstrated
what R.N. Elliott observed in 1934: "These cyclical changes seem
clearly to have their origin in the immutable natural law that governs all
things, including the various moods of human behavior."
Mood Compass Archives:
2011: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008: Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul July-Supplement Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A Brief Write-up on our Research and Methodology can be found HERE.
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Originally developed to monitor social instability developments by forecasting changes the stock market, crude oil, and the U.S. Dollar (via oscillations of social mood).
Previous Name: Futures Markets Forecasting Project
Independent testing of "Market Mood Oscillator" 1/3/08 through 1/2/09:
Third Party Assessment of Forecasting Model.
Results of research, 2nd half 2007 Briefing Handouts
Phase Two (a blog results):
The Crow's Nest
A look out for social, economic, and environmental storms on the horizon.
Letter regarding conclusion of Phase One
Click Here for Phase One forecasts and archives.
We have expanded our research into the area of the futures markets. Although our primary interest is in social stability, there may be indicators of social vulnerabilities we can glean from activities in the markets. Just as the health of the environment will be evident in effects on its inhabitants (e.g. society), what is occurring in a society will be visible in the economy. By being able to spot economic trends we should be better able to spot areas of potential social instability. See Research Summary.
Using the changes we see in the collective mood factors for U.S and global society, we find the likely mood changes for the following month and quarter. We then determine the likely changes in the market from the oscillations of these mood factors. These are presented in an experience-near multimedia format in The Crow's Nest blog.