The MoodCompass Project

Note: Originally developed to monitor social instability developments by forecasting changes in the stock market, crude oil, and the U.S. Dollar, this project has expanded into a forecasting tool for socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental instability-- the MoodCompass.

 

Research Sponsors only: MoodCompass February 2010

Mood Compass Archives:

2010: Jan 

2009: Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec

2008: Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  July-Supplement Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

 

A Brief Write-up on our Research and Methodology can be found HERE.

 

INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT:

Research is currently being done at the Economics Department of the University of Milan, Italy to test the utility of the MoodCompass as a forecasting tool.

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HISTORY:

Previous Name: Futures Markets Forecasting Project

 

 Independent testing of "Market Mood Oscillator" 1/3/08 through 1/2/09:

Third Party Assessment of Forecasting Model.

Results of research, 2nd half 2007          Briefing         Handouts

Phase Two (a blog results):

The Crow's Nest                                                                                          RSS feed

A look out for social, economic, and environmental storms on the horizon.

                                                                                                                   

 

Phase One:

Letter regarding conclusion of Phase One

Click Here for Phase One forecasts and archives.

  • We have expanded our research into the area of the futures markets.  Although our primary interest is in social stability, there may be indicators of social vulnerabilities we can glean from activities in the markets.  Just as the health of the environment will be evident in effects on its inhabitants (e.g. society), what is occurring in a society will be visible in the economy.  By being able to spot economic trends we should be better able to spot areas of potential social instability.  See Research Summary.


  • Using the changes we see in the collective mood factors for U.S and global society, we find the likely mood changes for the following month and quarter.  We then determine the likely changes in the market from the oscillations of these mood factors.   These are presented in an experience-near multimedia format in The Crow's Nest blog.

 
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