The MoodCompass Project

Global risk and hazard forecasting in the areas of socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental instability using oscillations in social mood and perception-- The MoodCompass.


From the September 2008 stock market crash, to the Arab Spring uprisings to the Fukishima Earthquake, the MoodCompass Project demonstrates that the where and when of major changes, even a month or more in the future, can be detected, analyzed, and prepared for.. 


See MoodCompass on the TV NEWS:


Great article overviewing our work: Group using cutting-edge research to forecast social mood, perceptions


Read the Socionomist Article: A Professor incorporates Social Mood into Model for Forecasting Big Events


Our research has demonstrated what R.N. Elliott observed in 1934:  "These cyclical changes seem clearly to have their origin in the immutable natural law that governs all things, including the various moods of human behavior."


Mood Compass Archives:

2011: Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct   Nov   Dec

2010: Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct   Nov  Dec

2009: Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec

2008: Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  July-Supplement Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


A Brief Write-up on our Research and Methodology can be found HERE.

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Originally developed to monitor social instability developments by forecasting changes the stock market, crude oil, and the U.S. Dollar (via oscillations of social mood).

Previous Name: Futures Markets Forecasting Project


 Independent testing of "Market Mood Oscillator" 1/3/08 through 1/2/09:

Third Party Assessment of Forecasting Model.

Results of research, 2nd half 2007          Briefing         Handouts

Phase Two (a blog results):

The Crow's Nest                                                                        RSS feed

A look out for social, economic, and environmental storms on the horizon.



Phase One:

Letter regarding conclusion of Phase One

Click Here for Phase One forecasts and archives.

  • We have expanded our research into the area of the futures markets.  Although our primary interest is in social stability, there may be indicators of social vulnerabilities we can glean from activities in the markets.  Just as the health of the environment will be evident in effects on its inhabitants (e.g. society), what is occurring in a society will be visible in the economy.  By being able to spot economic trends we should be better able to spot areas of potential social instability.  See Research Summary.

  • Using the changes we see in the collective mood factors for U.S and global society, we find the likely mood changes for the following month and quarter.  We then determine the likely changes in the market from the oscillations of these mood factors.   These are presented in an experience-near multimedia format in The Crow's Nest blog.