MoodCompass® A Guide to Global Mood and Markets
About MoodCompass
Originally Developed to Study Sustainability
MoodCompass is based on a data analysis tool developed by A New Story Foundation, a non-profit organization researching sustainability, that quantitatively measures and tracks the emotions and behavior—or “mood”—of a society. The tool can also be used to measure a society’s perception of other organized entities such as governments and other societies. For the last two years researchers have used this tool to track the mood of
Then They Stumbled Onto Something…
In July of 2007, after tracking these three segments for over 18 months, researchers noticed a correlation between patterns in their profiling data and the movement of the financial markets. Specifically, the profile of
Researchers spent the rest of 2007 analyzing these correlations and identifying the formulas that yielded curves that best mirrored each market’s curve. By the end of 2007 they had successfully generated a curve for each segment that very accurately predicted whether its corresponding market was trending up or down and when the trend was likely to shift.
MoodCompass was Born
Researchers at A New Story Foundation knew they were on to something big. If they could predict changes in social mood and the potential for instability, and demonstrate that with accurate predictions of the direction and timing of trends of the stock market, the dollar, and crude oil, that information would surely be valuable to managers, planners, and even the investment community itself. They could not only use it to raise money for the foundation, but more importantly to raise awareness about issues surrounding sustainability. They decided to make their global mood and market forecasting information available to interested parties, and MoodCompass was born.
How It Works
The MoodCompass profiles an entity based on the relative presence of four primary characteristics or of four hybrid characteristics. A profile expressed in terms of primary characteristics weighs the entity’s relative focus on identity (north), focus on activity (south), use of intuition (west), and use of logic (east). A profile expressed in terms of hybrid characteristics weighs the entity’s relative amount of nurturing behavior (northeast), manic expression (southeast), directing behavior (southwest), and somber expression (northwest). It was named the MoodCompass because the eight characteristics are best viewed in circular relation to one another like points on a compass:
Primary Characteristics
Hybrid Characteristics
To generate a MoodCompass, researchers first assess the entity’s “Predisposition.” Its Predisposition is its current mindset, or “where it is coming from,” and largely dictates how it will react to things. Predisposition is expressed in terms of the relative presence of the four primary characteristics. Researchers then assess the entity’s “Emphasis,” which is how it wants to be viewed by others and dictates the characteristics it tries to display. Emphasis is expressed in terms of the relative presence of the four hybrid characteristics.
An entity’s Predisposition overlaid by its Emphasis generates is “Manifestation,” or its outward expression of emotion and behavior, which is how it is perceived by others. Its Manifestation can be expressed in terms of the four primary characteristics or the four hybrid characteristics. When expressing Manifestation, the two sets of characteristics are inter-related, each characteristic a combination of the two that surround it. This relationship is best viewed by embedding a pie chart of the primary characteristics inside a pie chart of the hybrid characteristics:
For example, the primary characteristic (W) Intuitive Processing is a combination of the two hybrid characteristics (SW) Directing and (NW) Somber. Likewise, the hybrid characteristic (NE) Nurturing is a combination of (N) Identity Focused and (E) Logic Processing.
Tracking Profiles Over Time
Because the primary and hybrid characteristics are so closely related, only one set of characteristics need be plotted over time (the other set is implied). The hybrid set is normally plotted given that its descriptors portray outward personality traits.
Researchers have found that when plotted over time, each of the four Manifestation characteristics (called “mood lines”) tends to oscillates in a somewhat regular pattern. The actual movement of each is actually a function of its oscillation pattern combined with how it is influenced by the oscillations of the other characteristics. After months of analysis and testing, researchers ultimately identified the oscillation patterns of each and how they influence one another, which enabled them to extend the data into the future. They then applied the formulas that yield curves that correlate with the financial markets to produce reliable forecasts of the S&P 500, the dollar, and crude oil.
During the course of each month, researchers collect information surrounding current events and perceived future events, and qualitatively assess how the entity reacts to them. This assessment is the basis for the entity’s Predisposition and Emphasis assessments, which together produce the Manifestation profile, which is ultimately plotted as mood lines and extended into the future to generate the MoodCompass forecasts. Researchers have found that ‘recalibrating’ the mood lines once-a-month with the new qualitative assessment is enough to acknowledge the entity’s response to current events without allowing intermittent “noise” to corrupt the model.
Here are the forecasted Manifestation mood lines for
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Philosophy and Methodology: For more information on our research and methodology, please see: http://anewstory.org/research.pdf.
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