A New Story Foundation
Futures Market Forecasting Project
Past forecasts and results
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| Accuracy of Weekly Forecast vs Actual |
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| Jan 3 07 | Jan 8 07 | Jan 16 07 | Jan 22 07 | Jan 29 07 | Feb 5 07 | Feb 12 07 | Feb 19 07 |
| Average |
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Net Change | Crude Oil | 98.1% | 95.1% | 99.7% | 99.6% | 94.8% | 99.1% | 97.3% | 94.6% |
| 97.3% |
| Dollar Index |
| 100.0% | 99.0% | 99.6% | 99.4% | 98.5% |
| 99.0% |
| 99.3% |
| Nasdaq Index |
| 93.5% | 99.2% | 99.7% | 99.9% | 97.3% |
| 99.2% |
| 98.1% |
| Dow Index | 99.8% | 98.2% |
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| 99.0% |
| S&P Index | 99.8% | 98.4% |
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| 99.1% |
| Gold | 98.5% | 99.6% | 96.6% | 98.1% | 97.6% | 97.6% |
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| 98.0% |
| Euro | 99.4% |
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| 99.4% |
| Japanese Yen |
| 98.2% |
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| 98.2% |
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All data points | Crude Oil | 98.1% | 96.1% | 99.6% | 99.1% | 96.9% | 98.9% | 98.0% | 96.8% |
| 97.9% |
| Dollar Index |
| 99.7% | 99.3% | 99.6% | 99.5% | 98.9% |
| 99.3% |
| 99.4% |
| Nasdaq Index |
| 96.3% | 99.5% | 99.6% | 99.9% | 98.3% |
| 98.2% |
| 98.6% |
| Dow Index | 99.8% | 98.9% |
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| 99.4% |
| S&P Index | 99.8% | 99.1% |
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| 99.5% |
| Gold | 98.5% | 99.6% | 97.9% | 98.4% | 98.9% | 97.1% |
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| 98.4% |
| Euro | 99.4% |
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| 99.4% |
| Japanese Yen |
| 98.6% |
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| 98.6% |
Socioeconomic Forecast Week of February 26, 2007
Theme: Fears and tensions resolve into big (violent) market moves
Trading implications: |
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Oil: Buy early; take profits by mid week |
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Dollar: Clearest direction at end of week |
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Nasdaq: Go short or get out - immediately! | ||
Futures Market Forecast for the Week of February 26, 2007
(numbers in forecast below are for scale and direction and are not intended to be exact targets)
| Assumed Open | Low | High | Δ Up | Δ Dn | Open-Close | % |
| Likely movement flow |
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CLJ07 | 61.14 | 61 | 64.5 | 3.36 | 0.14 | 0.96 | 1.6% |
| starts big up; middle up and down; end down |
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DXH07 | 84 | 83.6 | 84.4 | .4 | .4 | -.25 | -0.3% |
| start up; middle ?; end resolves in down | ||||
NQH07 | 1845 | 1760 | 1857 | 12 | 85 | -70 | -3.8% |
| start up/down; middle down; end down/oversold |
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Week of February 19, 2007
Theme: Finding direction.
Qualitative forecast & results
| Actual movement flow |
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| Predicted movement flow |
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Oil | starts down; middle volatility/slight up; end? |
| starts down; middle volatility/slight up; end? |
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Dollar | opens lower; volatility/up; end turning down |
| start down; middle volatility, directionless, mostly down; end turning up | |||||||
Nasdaq | starts down then rallies; middle volatility/up; end down | start big down; middle volatility/up; end down |
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Quantitative forecast & results
| Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Clo | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
CLJ07 | 59.6 | 61.8 | 60 | 57.78 | 57 | 61.14 | 1.54 | -1.68 | 2.6% | -1.4% |
DXH07 | 83.88 | 84.44 | 84.2 | 83.81 | 83 | 83.99 | 0.11 | -0.7 | 0.1% | -0.6% |
NQH07 | 1827 | 1857 | 1830 | 1814 | 1760 | 1845 | 18 | 33 | 1.0% | -1.4% |
Week of February 12, 2007
Note: This week was puzzling for us, and it seemed best not to make a numerical forecast at all (although we did provide one for crude oil).
Qualitative forecast & results
| Actual movement flow |
| Predicted movement flow |
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Oil | losses, ends up |
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| Starts up, losses, ends up |
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Gold | mostly up, but still struggling |
| Starts up, struggles, finally pushes up through resistance | ||||
Dollar | starts up, mostly down, turns up end of week | … turning up end of week |
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Nasdaq | starts down, then rally, ends "stuck" | Anything could happen and probably will. |
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| Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Close | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
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CLH07 | 59.25 | 59.76 | 61 | 56.62 | 56 | 59.17 | -0.1 | -1.68 | -0.1% | -0.9% |
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Week of February 5, 2007
Qualitative forecast & results
| Actual movement flow | Predicted movement flow |
Oil | flat, down, up; high volatility | high volatility; bull run decelerates |
Gold | volatile; late week rally | giving back last week's gains; late week rally |
Dollar | little gains, then creeps down | some gains, then breaking down |
Nasdaq | starts down, then rally, ends down | starts down, then rally, but looks shaky |
Quantitative forecast & results |
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| Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Clo | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
CLH07 | 59.25 | 60.8 | 61 | 57.25 | 56 | 59.72 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.8% | -0.9% |
GCG07 | 653.1 | 673.9 | 650 | 651.2 | 633 | 671.5 | 18.4 | 3 | 2.8% | 2.4% |
DXH07 | 84.85 | 85.05 | 85.25 | 84.49 | 83.22 | 84.75 | -0.1 | -1.4 | -0.1% | 0.2% |
NQH07 | 1807 | 1828 | 1860 | 1785 | 1799 | 1793 | -14.0 | 35 | -0.8% | 1.3% |
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chart data source: FutureSource. |
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| Key |
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| exceptionally good match | ||
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| exceptionally bad match | ||
Comments: We were a week premature on the dollar break.
Forecast for the week of January 29, 2007
Note: We have two scenarios for oil this week—not sure which to go with
Oil(1): Perhaps bulls got a bit ahead of themselves last week. CLH07—Range 53.65 – 56 Net change -.5 (-0.9%).
Oil(2): Solid bull market, approaching overbought. CLH07—Range 54 – 58. Net change 1.5 (2.7%).
Gold: Final rally burst? GCG07—Range 643-665. Net change 16 (2.4%)
Dollar: Struggling to go up, still finding direction. DXH07—Range 85-85.5. Net change .2 (0.2%)
Nasdaq: Look for attempted comeback. NQH07—Range 1771-1816. Net change 23 (1.3%)
Results:
| Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Clo | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
CLH07(a) | 55.63 | 59.25 | 56 | 53.75 | 53.65 | 59.02 | 3.4 | -0.5 | 6.1% | -0.9% |
CLH07(b) | 55.63 | 59.25 | 58 | 53.75 | 54 | 59.02 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 6.1% | 2.7% |
GCG07 | 645.7 | 661.5 | 665 | 640.8 | 643 | 646.2 | 0.5 | 16 | 0.1% | 2.4% |
DXH07 | 85.1 | 85.11 | 85.8 | 84.25 | 84.4 | 84.8 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.4% | 0.2% |
NQH07 | 1783 | 1817 | 1816 | 1774 | 1771 | 1807 | 24.0 | 23 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
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chart data source: FutureSource. |
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| Key |
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| exceptionally good match | ||
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| exceptionally bad match | ||
Forecast for the week of January 22, 2007
Oil: New range; bull market again. CLH07—Range 52.5-56.7. Net change 1.8 (3.3%)
Gold: Careful of turnabout GCG07—Range 620-648. Net change -3.1 (-.5%)
Dollar: High volatility. DXH07—Range 84.4 – 85.8. Net change .7 (.8%)
Nasdaq: Optimism turning cold? NQH07—Range 1760-1822. Net change -22 (-1.2%)
Results:
| Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Clo | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
CLH07 | 53.48 | 55.9 | 56.7 | 52.07 | 52.5 | 55.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 3.8% | 3.3% |
GCG07 | 635.8 | 654.8 | 648 | 632 | 620 | 644.7 | 8.9 | -3.1 | 1.4% | -0.5% |
DXH07 | 84.73 | 85.25 | 85.8 | 84.28 | 84.4 | 85.11 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4% | 0.8% |
NQH07 | 1807 | 1822 | 1822 | 1773 | 1760 | 1779 | -28.0 | -22 | -1.5% | -1.2% |
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| Key |
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| exceptionally good match | ||
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| exceptionally bad match | ||
Comment: We seem to be doing really well, except for gold. We'll try gold one more week, and drop if we still can't track it well.
Forecast for the week of January 16, 2007
Oil: More downside. Bull and bear struggle. CLG07—Range: 49.9-54. Net change -.75 (-1.5%)
Gold: mostly down. GCG07—Range 607-635. Net change -12 (-2%)
Dollar: Steady decline. DXH07—Range 83.6-85.1 Net change -42 (-2.3%)
Nasdaq: Look for sell-off this week. NQH07—Range 1810-1870. Net change -42 (-2.3%)
Results:
Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Close | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % | |
CLG07 | 52.94 | 53.55 | 54 | 49.9 | 49.9 | 52.04 | -0.9 | -0.75 | -1.7% | -1.5% |
GCG07 | 626.9 | 637.4 | 635 | 623.2 | 607 | 636.4 | 9.5 | -12 | 1.5% | -2.0% |
DXH07 | 84.75 | 85.1 | 85.1 | 84.45 | 83.6 | 84.68 | -0.07 | -0.9 | -0.1% | -1.1% |
NQH07 | 1863 | 1868 | 1870 | 1801 | 1810 | 1807 | -56 | -42 | -3.0% | -2.3% |
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Key | ||||||||||
| exceptionally good match | |||||||||
| exceptionally bad match | |||||||||
Comments: We know now what we did wrong with Gold for this week, as well as dollar and have made method changes.
Forecast for the week of January 8, 2007
Oil: It’s not time to buy yet. Bull and bear struggle.
Gold: Don’t expect it to go up much for most of the week. Limited downside.
Dollar: The gains this week should not be as dramatic as last week, but still an up week for the dollar.
Nasdaq: A rally here is an illusion. A bubble that is about to pop. NQH07-- Range 1740 – 1830. Net change -52 (-3%).
Results:
| Open | High | Pred Hi | Low | Pred Lo | Close | Open-Clo | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
CLG07 | 56.24 | 57.72 | 58 | 51.8 | 55.1 | 53 | -3.24 | -0.5 | -5.8% | -0.9% |
GCG07 | 609.3 | 628.8 | 625 | 605 | 604.1 | 626.9 | 17.6 | 20 | 2.9% | 3.3% |
DXH07 | 84.43 | 85.17 | 84.9 | 84.23 | 83.82 | 84.82 | 0.39 | 0.4 | 0.5% | 0.5% |
JYH07 | 0.8505 | 0.8546 | 0.86 | 0.8353 | 0.85 | 0.8378 | -0.0127 | 0.0025 | -1.5% | 0.3% |
DJH07 | 12475 | 12630 | 12479 | 12405 | 12372 | 12626 | 151 | -75 | 1.2% | -0.6% |
SPH07 | 1417 | 1441 | 1430 | 1412 | 1409 | 1441 | 24 | 1 | 1.7% | 0.1% |
NQH07 | 1798 | 1863 | 1830 | 1792 | 1740 | 1862 | 64 | -52 | 3.6% | -2.9% |
Key |
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| exceptionally good match | ||
| exceptionally bad match | ||
Also, we will now only do one equity index, Nasdaq, as we think it will likely have the most extreme correction.
Forecast for the week of January 3, 2007
Equities: Look for the general direction to be down, accelerating as the week progresses. Net change DJ -137 (-1.10%), SP -15 (-1%)
Euro: Look for big losses against the dollar. Net change -0.0214 (-1.6%)
Gold: Similar story to the equities. Net change -25 (-3.9%)
Oil: Big losses this week could even take the bears by surprise! Net change -3.57 (-5.9%)
Results:
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| Open | High | Low | Close | Open-Clo | Prediction | Actual % | Pred. % |
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CLG07 | 60.95 | 60.97 | 54.9 | 56.24 | -4.71 | -3.57 | -7.73 | -5.90% |
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ECH07 | 1.3325 | 1.3335 | 1.3023 | 1.3025 | -0.03 | -0.0214 | -2.25 | -1.60% |
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GCH07 | 643 | 647.3 | 603 | 608.5 | -34.5 | -25 | -5.37 | -3.90% |
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DJH07 | 12611 | 12652 | 12430 | 12450 | -161 | -137 | -1.28 | -1.10% |
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SPH07 | 1434 | 1440 | 1414 | 1416 | -18 | -15 | -1.26 | -1% |
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| Key |
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| exceptionally good match | ||
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| exceptionally bad match | ||||||
chart data source: FutureSource.
Copyright 2007 A New Story Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.